Federal Baseball: FanPosts

Washington Nationals... Best of. 2008 Edition

TwoTonsOfIrony — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 18:58:49 -0000

So I've been watching the playoffs (always painful as a Nats fan) and watching some of the endings and plays it made me think about the season that was for the Nats and what some of my favorite plays and moments were. Of course at first I went straight to cynical mode and figured there weren't any, but as I thought through the season there were quite a few that came to mind (remember it is 162 game season). I put a couple of them below that I could remember, but I want to hear from everyone else to see if there were any that i may have forgotten or missed so that I could have the winter to dwell on the finer points of the season to look forward to '09.

-Pretty obvious here: Zim's walk-off to start the Nats (and MLB) season. Great christening for the stadium and the Nats were for a while 'first in war, first in peace, and FIRST IN THE NL EAST!!!'

-Willie Harris's diving catch against the Mets in September to hold onto that gem from Perez and spoil the Mets (always feels good) 1-0.

-Belliard's walk off against the O's at the end of June. Bottom 12 off Sherrill, they had just given up the lead in the 9th, but fought back for the win, good stuff.

-On the lighter side: I also do remember Teddy taking a huge lead in the race and everyone getting excited and then he fell down only to get beat by Abe again...LET TEDDY WIN!

So there actually was some good stuff to take away from the season, for me at least. What do you guys remember most fondly to at least keep our winter upbeat.

N.B. I'll add to the poll below according to posts that seem good.

Poll

What was your best moment of the season?

Boswell Tells It Like It Is,....Politely!

wxguy — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 12:52:59 -0000

I draw everyone's attention to this morning's (Friday, 26 Sept. 2008), Tom Boswell's Washington Post column in the Sports section. Tom, one of the most respected sports writers in the nation, especially for baseball, finally tells it like it is. However, in his skilled matter, he does it very gently and politely. Tom is still being nice to the Nats because he knows what is going on behind the closed doors. He knows Stan Kasten, and Manny Acta are extremely talented individuals who know what they are doing, but are being micromanaged by inexperienced and cheap owners. It will be a darn shame if we see either leave the Nats organization by 2010. I'm undecided on Bowden as GM. He made a couple of good moves, but made many bad moves and reminds me of the typical low budget, perennial last place, general manager.

Then there are the owners, the Lerner family. The Lerner's are worth about 4 times as much as the Yankees' Steinbrenners, yet act as if they are running some shopping mall in a low budget, ghetto area. The present state of this team is directly the fault of this quiet, yet openly, supposedly, totally in love with baseball. But behind closed doors, the Lerners appear to be tight wad, micro-managing, short term for profit, owners. The whole organization below the Lerners is in a deep morose. Under this type of management in any business, the owners might make a short term profit, but at what cost to the morale of those below them. Why did the team have so many injuries this season?. Yes, we had a lot of injury prone players, but I believe that when one is depressed and plays with little enthusiasm you tend to get hurt. And this team played overall like a depressed with little enthusiasm. This was not the manager's fault, the President's fault, or even the GM's fault. This attitude started at the top, the cheap and micro-managing Lerners. To quote Boswell,.."Does a cheap suit unravel?"

The warning signs started with the failure to sign Soriano last fall. It proceeded to the lack of signing or even pursuing any free agent in the winter. Then the treatment of Cordero with his injuries. The trading away of very average, but very popular players, Church and Schneider (Did they ever realize how popular these guys were with the young fans?). No trades of significance in July. No resigning of the franchise player, Zimmerman, or contract extension for the great, young manager, Acta. The season long battle over paying rent to the city because, ".. the stadium was not complete on time", just to squeeze a few more bucks into the Lerner coffers. The arrogance about the failure to sign their top draft pick (Do you think any top player will play with Nats as long as the Lerners are the owners? The word is obviously out on the street.).

I thought they really wanted a winning team, but now I realize who owns and is developing the land around the new stadium, the Lerner's. You wonder why there is no parking? The Nats to the Lerner's are a means to an end, the development of their real estate assets. The Nats, are in no way, the center of their attention. I still feel you will see the Lerner's sell the Nats in 5 years or so. They will make a huge profit. The new owners will move the team to Las Vegas. It has happened before in DC, and I see no one in Selig's MLB or Orioles organization praying like I am, that a new, white knight with deep pockets and willingness to risk his money for the love of the game, coming to the rescue. The Nats need a Brooks Brothers suit, not a JC Penny's special!

wxguy

Poll

Which of the following will not be part of the 2010 Nats team?

If Anyone Is Still Interested...

Dave at Bottomfeeder Baseball — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 21:12:32 -0000

I (among others) attended the Q&A at the ESPN Zone Friday with Nats GM Jim Bowden and Ass't GM Mike Rizzo. My recaps can be found at the links below. Plus, check out Fire Jim Bowden's take on the day as well. It was a rousing good time, if you allow the topic of lousy baseball to not ruin it for you.

http://bottomfeederbaseball.blogspot.com/2008/09/meet-pseudo-press.html

http://bottomfeederbaseball.blogspot.com/2008/09/bowden-and-rizzo-q-post-mortem-part-1.html

http://bottomfeederbaseball.blogspot.com/2008/09/bowden-rizzo-post-mortem-part-deux.html

ROME WASN'T BUILT IN A DAY, THE NATIONALS WON'T BE EITHER.

LOUtheMETSfan — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 18:44:07 -0000

First, I'm a METS fan but I live here in D.C.

Second, if memory serves me correctly I've been to five NATS games.

Third, the teams got a "Don't Mess With Us Attitude", they play hard and they're not intimidated by anyone.

Today in the Washington Post, blogger, Marc Fisher, from his blog Raw Fisher talks about the fact that reduced prices for 7,500 seats for next year's season can't compete with excitement. Also from what I gather he doesn't seem to give the Nationals any hope of fielding a decent team.

Personally, I'm tired of defending this city from numerous attacks by fans and bloggers alike by what they've witnessed at Nationals games.

To wit:

Lack of cheering, no place to go around the stadium pre, during and post game. If I'm not mistaken, the only more ravenous fans in the NFL are the Philadelphia Eagles and the Oakland Raiders. The Redskins are pretty darn close. Once the team starts winning I'm quite sure South Capitol's ballpark will be rocking. The area adjacent to it. It's coming, please be patient.

No BIG NAME players to watch. Thanks to New York, L.A., Boston and the Chicago Cubs, big name players are just too expensive so, let's work on what we've got and make our own BIG NAME players.

Fans arriving late and leaving early. Last time I checked, anyone who paid money for something was allowed to do with their purchase what they wanted to do with it. Sure, it might not be correct etiquette to arrive late and leave early but please, name me one team where people are always on time to a baseball game! THERE ISN'T ONE! Let me repeat, NOT ONE!

Rome wasn't built in a day. Neither were the Washington Redskins and neither will the Nationals be. The NATS have been besieged by injuries this year. In late August the NATS put together a nice 7 game winning streak. Some may say, so what! Well, you tell me what kind of team you have when you basically have nothing to play for and your team scratches and claws it's way to a winning streak that late in the season. I call it pride. Pride does produce. The true baseball fans noticed what kind of potential this ball club has for next season and beyond.

As for ticket prices going down. How many times have we heard about everyone complaining about ticket prices? TOO MANY TO COUNT! So any relief for John and Jane Q. Taxpayer is welcomed, especially in today's economic climate. I've had enough w/the instant gratification types. It's gonna take time. So, buy a ticket, eat a hot dog and settle in for what may be a promising franchise.

Here's the article.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/22/AR2008092202934.html

Goodbye Columbus, NATS AAA team

wxguy — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 13:08:22 -0000

Well, just to continue the turmoil, the Nats have now ended their connection to Columbus, Ohio as a AAA affiliate. This lasted all of two years with the former Yankee AAA city. Now the question is where the team will put its top minor league team. probably far from the DC fans and sportswirters to hide the fact that the "Plan "is not working. The Wash. Post seems to feel Syracuse, NY, will be open when the Blue Jays farm team leaves. The logical place would be in Richmond, VA, because of its closeness to DC. The Braves are leaving there after some 40 years. Richmond, however, needs a new stadium up to AAA standards, and I'm sure the Lerners will do nothing to help in that area.

Now here's the surprise sleeper that the Wash. Post mentions in passing, as a possible new location for the Nats AAA team. Now since I'm big on the whole Lerner strategy as to where they are going with ownership of the Nats, that is, keep all costs low and sell the team for twice what it is worth in about 5 years, the magic city mentioned as the next possible location is none other than Las Vegas, NV. Yes, that's right, Las Vegas, the town that lost out to DC for the Nats. If the Nats move their farm team to Las Vegas, I believe, that will be a good indicator as to where the team might be headed in about five years. The strategy here is to build up fan support for the Nats organization than sell and move the team to Las Vegas, land of gold and honey. All of this will be after the Nats Lerner organization continues to field a minor league team with poor marketing and relations with the city resulting in ever decreasing fan attendance. This all will give the Lerner's a reason to sell the team for a huge profit under the pretenses that DC cannot support a team, but somehow Baltimore can. I believe a secret deal or agreement was made long ago between the Lerners, MLB, and Peter Angeloes dealing with this whole scenario.MLB does not want to be in DC.

Maybe I should change my name to "Nats Cynic'. I pray that I am wrong and the Nats will acquire a few major, blue chip players in the off season, but I don't count on it.

wxguy

Poll

Where will the Nats move their AAA team for the 2009 season?

Nats drop 107.7 FM, voice of N. VA

wxguy — Wed, 17 Sep 2008 12:51:24 -0000

Well, here we go again. I guess in the wisdom of the Nats marketing dept., the Nats have dropped 107.7 FM, the crystal clear, non-static voice of N. VA. That means N. VA is left with 1500 AM, the static filled, weak station, you can barely hear, inside the beltway, let alone outside the beltway. We certainly don't want the outer DC metro counties, Fairfax, Prince William, Loundon, Fauquier, Montgomery, Howard, Anne Arundel, St. Mary's, to be able to listen to the Nats. After all maybe some of these folks might actually listen to the Nats games and become fans. They may even want to attend a game at Nats Park.

Does anyone really believe MLB wants the Nats to stay in DC???

Does anyone believe in the Lerner's "Plan" which to me amounts to pay as you go? in other words, the Lerner's are unwilling to use their own money to buy top players. Instead, they think can fool the fans into thinking they care about the team. All I see with the "Plan", is keeping labor (players' salaries) and overhead costs way down, to make a quick buck and then sell the team for a profit when attendance drops below a certain threshold in about 4 years.

By the way, read Tom Boswell's polite, but indirect hint ( Washington Post, Weds., 17 Sep. 2008, Sports section), about spending some Lerner loot to get some blue chip players next year, as if anyone would want to come here after the reputation of the Lerner's has leaked out.

wxguy

p.s. How about a poll on whether the Nats will lose a hundred games this year?

Game 140 in Haiku form...

Doghouse — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 19:00:30 -0000

...so, after taunting a buddy who I'd offered my spare ticket to last night's game about how he missed the Best. Game. Ever., he challenged me to recap it in Haiku form. I gather this is also something of a sport among Nationals Journal commenters. Anyhow, I was pleased with my efforts:

First pitch from Perez
Plonks Utley square on the hip.
Take that, you jackass!

Milledge's hard slide
Knocks Chase on his behind.
Double play undone.

Zimmerman goes yard.
Guzman's double clears bases.
Howard's dingers lose.

Put your own Nats haiku in the comments and drive Ed crazy!

NATIONALS ANNOUNCE ROSTER FOR INSTRUCTIONAL LEAGUE

Dave at Bottomfeeder Baseball — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 16:21:13 -0000

Direct from the Press Release:

The Washington Nationals today announced their roster for players participating in the 2008 Instructional League.   Nationals Senior Vice President and General Manager Jim Bowden, Assistant General Manager and Vice President, Player Development Bob Boone and Director of Player Development Bobby Williams made the joint announcement.

The Instructional League (IL) is intended to provide the best and brightest prospects in the Nationals’ system with high-intensity instruction and attention provided by Washington’s top minor-league coordinators, managers, coaches and instructors. During the 25-day slate, players will participate in workouts and play in games on a daily basis. For the second consecutive year, the Nationals will compete in IL pool play with similar squads from the Astros, Braves and Tigers organizations.

Those invited to the IL will report to the Nationals Spring Training Complex in Viera, FL on September 16, with the first workout scheduled for September 17.

Over half of the club’s 47 players participating in the IL were selected in the 2007 or 2008 First-Year Player Draft.

The IL class of 2008 includes shortstop Esmailyn “Smiley” Gonzalez (the 2008 Gulf Coast League batting champion), left-handed pitcher Jack McGeary (Washington’s sixth-round selection in the 2007 Draft, led the GCL with 64 strikeouts this season), outfielder Michael Burgess (paced professional baseball with 28 outfield assists, finished second among Nationals farmhands with 24 home runs and tied for second with 79 RBI this season), outfielder Destin Hood (Washington’s second-round selection in this year’s First-Year Player Draft), shortstop Danny Espinosa (a third-round pick in the ‘08 Draft out of Long Beach State University), left-handed pitcher Graham Hicks (selected in the fourth round of this June’s Draft) and catcher Adrian Nieto (Washington’s fifth-round selection in the ‘08 First-Year Player Draft).

The Nationals’ 2008 Instructional League roster:

PITCHERS (22) RHP Edulin Abreu, LHP William Atwood, RHP Martin Beno,  RHP P.J. Dean, RHP Paul Demny, RHP Shane Erb, RHP Marcos Frias, LHP Austin Garrett, LHP Bobby Hansen, LHP Graham Hicks, RHP Juan Jaime, RHP Cole Kimball, LHP Kevin Light, LHP Patrick McCoy, LHP Jack McGeary, RHP Brad Peacock, RHP Hassan Pena, RHP Jose Pinales, LHP Atahualpa Severino, LHP Josh Smoker, RHP Steven Stewart, RHP Colton Willems

CATCHERS (5) C Daniel Killian, C Sandy Leon, C Adrian Nieto, C Derek Norris, C Sean Rooney,

INFIELDERS (11) SS Dani Arias, SS Danny Espinosa, SS Esmailyn Gonzalez, 3B Stephen King, 3B Ronnie Labrie, 2B Stephen Lombardozzi , 1B Chris Marrero,  1B Tyler Moore, 2B Jake Smolinski, 2B Francisco Soriano, 3B Steven Souza

OUTFIELDERS (9) OF Michael Burgess, OF Chris Curran,  OF J.R. Higley, OF Destin Hood, OF Marcus Jones, OF Justin Maxwell, OF Eury Perez, OF J.P. Ramirez

Hypothetical GM: What If The Nationals Had To Trade Zimmerman? Do You Think You're Better Than DC GM Jim Bowden? Prove It!

e chigliak — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 04:20:18 -0000

I received an email from grover, over at Athletics Nation, the SBN's A's blog, early last week with an interesting proposal...

(After first assuring me that he wasn't looking to start a "flame war" with federalbaseball.com readers), grover wrote:

"I like to talk trade scenarios over at AN and I've found that getting input from from the fans of the other side tends to lead to a more interesting and realistic discussion.

"So, if the A's came calling about Ryan Zimmerman how would Jim Bowden respond? How would you respond?!?! Would the Nationals be willing to discuss a trade involving Zimmerman and what would they want/need in return. Now, I know one automatic response would be to ask for the 3 best prospects in the A's system (the other automatic response is "go to H _ _ _" but I'm going to ignore that one for now) but the changing tide of prospects-for-vets trades and Zimmerman's 2008 performance makes that an unrealistic price tag.

"What would it cost to acquire Ryan Zimmerman? You don't have to know the A's system, just tell me what positions you're looking at and I can tell you who's available. Everyone in the Oakland organization is available providing they can actually be traded per MLB rules, so no one from the 2008 draft class can be included."

My first response...

"First of all I'd say that if GM Jim Bowden even considered trading Zimmerman, (after failing to ink '08 1st Round Aaron Crow and continuing to trade for former Reds), DC fans would completely revolt. In spite of an injury-filled season, the Nationals have clearly identified Zimmerman as the face of the franchise, and one of the key components in the Nationals' rebuilding effort, so trading him now would not sit well at all...that being said, though Zimmerman always says the right things, I got the sense he wasn't happy that DC didn't lock him up long term before this season, and just renewed him at a modest pay increase, and they'll be negotiating for real this time around, so I can (sort of pretend to) imagine a hypothetical scenario in which he might become avaiable...

The Nationals drafted Chris Marrero as a third baseman, but have moved him around to OF/1B with Zimmerman established at third, but I imagine Marrero or Kory Casto could man third competently for a few years if Zim was dealt...the Nationals have drafted a lot of pitchers recently and the outfield and infield are set for now with young starters at the major league level, (though MLB-ready position players in the system are hard to identify), so I'd think it would have to be a high-end pitching prospect, (or two), and a fielder, (1st base is particularly weak) coming back in return for DC to ever consider a trade...So who do the A's have?

grover's response:

"For 1B, why not start with Daric Barton? He's certainly struggled this year but his minor league track record plus his September 07 in the Show advocate his worth. Midland's Sean Doolittle has split time in the OF and 1B (where he's considered a very good defender) and hit 40 doubles and 22 HR between Stockton and Midland. He's a legit 1B prospect. Probably the A's best position prospect is 1B/3B/OF is Chris Carter. 38 HR as a 21 year old in High-A ball but K's are an issue. That's about it for 1B.

I didn't see any future catchers in the Nationals' org. How about Stockton's Josh Donaldson? Everyone above him pretty much (stinks) so I won't waste your time.

Any interest in former Philly farmhand Adrian Cardenas to play 2B?

Pitching wise, from what I've read Beane won't deal Cahill or Anderson but a lot of teams have asked about 21 year old Vincent Mazzaro, currently in Sac's rotation. If Gio Gonzalez, Dana Eveland or Greg Smith intrigued they'd probably be available."

That's as far as the talks have progressed, and I stalled grover this weekend while I had federalbaseball.com's scouts look into the A's prospects (alright I was really on vacation), but the A's GM is on the line now and he wants some answers, things are happening quickly, and you now have 24-48 hours to make something happen? I linked the A's prospects to their MiLB pages and here's the SBN blog "Minor League Ball" written by John Sickels, and mssickels' recent rehashing of "Oakland Athletics Top 20 Prospects Review" from January, 8, 2008. You think your better than DC GM Jim Bowden? Prove it! Make a deal to better the team!...Suspend disbelief and try to get the best deal you can for Ryan Zimmerman...

Break out the broom... again?!

Doghouse — Sun, 31 Aug 2008 20:29:25 -0000

Nats take three from the Braves, using a 5-run 8th (anchored by a 3-run HR from Aaron Boone) for a come-from-behind, 8-4 win. Guz went 2-5 with a double, Boney 2-3 with a double and a walk, Zimmy 2-4 with a walk.

Mock works a scoreless 8th and Balester manages to steady up after a shaky fourth inning and pitch 7 full innings for the first time in his major league career.

Let's go Nats go!

Dukes: "I love walks."

Doghouse — Sun, 31 Aug 2008 15:30:22 -0000

From the WaTimes gamer:

“I love walks. That's my motto — a walk is as good as a hit,” Dukes said. “I got two key walks today. It shows that you don't always have to get a hit.”

On his approach to the crucial AB:

“He had a lot of breaking balls, so I figured he'd try to attack me the same way,” Dukes said. “That's the thing. They know I can hit a fastball, so they try to go breaking balls. I'll take the walk.”

Dukes' walk rate is 13.4% right now, for an isolated patience (OBP-AVG) of 0.101. That's second only to Ryan Langerhans among actives right now (LangerWalks has a 19.3 BB% and an isolated patience of 0.158).

Quick Game Report...Nationals 9 Braves 8...DC Wins On Dukes' Walk-Off Walk!

e chigliak — Sun, 31 Aug 2008 05:06:28 -0000

Elijah Dukes vs Vladimir Nunez...Bases Loaded...2 Outs...Full Count...Ball Four. Dukes' Discerning Eye walks in a run after the two previous batters, Lastings Milledge and Ronnie Belliard failed to cash in a bases loaded, no out opportunity. Dukes' base on balls gives DC a 9-8 victory over Atlanta for the fifth-straight win at home with one more against the Braves tomorrow and then three with Philly to start the week.

Federalbaseball.com Almost Became Famous/Infamous... When I almost reached down for Jesus Flores' bases-clearing 3-run double in the fifth, which brought DC all the way back to tie it at 6-6, after the Nationals had originally trailed 4-0, then 4-2, and even fell behind at 6-2 before Flores' blast followed an RBI double by Belliard that had cut the lead to three..But what if I had reached down for it? I might have reached it and the first Replay call in DC Baseball history could have been inextricably linked to federalbaseball.com...Granted, I would have cost DC some runs and been kicked out to a chorus of boos from the DC Faithful which woyld've broken my heart...so i guess it's a good thing it was a game-tying double. There's always tomorrow...I'm going to one more then I'm going back home...I swear...but booing Philly fans does hold some appeal...Maybe I stay until DC loses?

Nationals now 51-85. (Countdown To 100 Losses STUCK At...15.)

Quick Game Report: Nationals 7 Braves 3.

e chigliak — Sat, 30 Aug 2008 04:50:37 -0000

Just got back from the first of three in DC this weekend. Had great seats right in the middle of the 1st base line 20 rows up, facing he mound and straight left. I got a few POV pics I'll post when I get back. Plus some post game fireworks shots. As for the game...Odalis Perez loaded the bases in the first and got the DP grounder he needed to escape the first. The Guzzz the doubled in the DC first and scored in the Ryan Zimmerma...THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!! THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!!! RBI single for Zimmerman scores The Guzzz, 1-0 DC. RBI triple for Emili-Ooooo Bonifacio in the second. 2-0 DC...And the Guzzz knocks Bonifacio in for a 3-0 lead off Atlanta's Jorge Campillo. Odalis gets another DP to end the fourth, and Milledge knocks in two for a 5-0 Nationals' lead after four. Perez gives up three runs in the fifth on a HR by Greg Norton and an RBI double by Prado, but DC strikes back in the fifth when Zim hits a sac fly to score Willie Harris, and Belliard knocks in Milledge, who had double, making it 7-3 DC, where it would end. Nationals win 4th-straight at home. Odalis Perez gets a curly "W" to improve to (W,6-10). Guzman, Dukes and Milledge double. Bonifacio triples. RBI's for Zim (2), Bonifacio, Guz, Milledge (2) and Belliard. 7-3 final. Nationals now 50-85. (Countdown to 100 Losses STUCK at 15.)

NATIONALS PLACE AUSTIN KEARNS ON DISABLED LIST

Dave at Bottomfeeder Baseball — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 19:34:57 -0000

From the Press Release:

The Washington Nationals today placed right fielder Austin Kearns on the 15-Day Disabled List, retroactive to August 25, with a stress fracture of his left foot. Nationals Senior Vice President and General Manager Jim Bowden made this announcement.

Kearns is expected to miss two-to-four weeks with the injury which was originally sustained on August 3. He was examined yesterday in Washington, DC by orthopedist Dr. Edward Magur, who recommended rest and immobilization with a walking cast. This is Kearns’ second DL stint this season. He missed 38 games after having surgery to remove loose bodies from his right elbow on May 23. Kearns has batted .217 with 10 doubles, seven home runs and 32 RBI in 86 games this season with Washington.

Did anyone else know he was hurt?

http://bottomfeederbaseball.blogspot.com/

http://bottomfeederbaseball.blogspot.com/2008/08/nationals-place-austin-kearns-on.html

Tuesday Nats Stats--Reliable Ronnie and The Amazing Willie

Doghouse — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 17:26:35 -0000

Ronnie Belliard and Willie Harris were the driving forces behind building the towering pile of awesome that was Friday's 13-5 win over the league-leading Cubbies. On this special getaway-day Monday version of Tuesday Nats Stats, we take a look at just how good Ronnie and Willie are this season: some kind of amazing, or only in comparison to the rest of the Nats? This year's stats after the jump.

It's been an odd, frustrating season. We've played musical lineups all year as pretty much everyone has spent time on the DL. But two of the surprising stabilizing forces have been Ronnie Belliard and Willie Harris. Let's troll baseball-reference and the Hardball Times for some stats!

RELIABLE RONNIE

Let's start with Belliard. This is his tenth full season in the majors (plus 8 games in the 1998 season, his first). He was an All-Star for the Indians in 2004. So far this season, he's hitting 278/369/479, with an OPS+ of 122. Compare this to his career-average line of 274/339/416 (OPS+ 96). He has 11 HR this year, which is not exceptional--Ronnie's had as many as 17 in a season (2005). What is notable is that those 11 HR have come in only 264 AB (it took him 511 AB to hit 11 HR last year). Ronnie's home-run per fly-ball ratio is 14.9%, a career high (last year it was 6.7%, and his career average is ~10%). His line-drive rate is up this year, too, at a career-high 23% (16.7% in '07, career average ~19%). His ground-ball rate is down (39.7% vs a career rate around 45%) while his fly-ball rate is steady, but with more HR (as above) and fewer pop-ups (5.1% of flies are infield pop-ups this season, vs ~12% career). Ronnie is smacking the heck out of the ball this year. It's not just luck, either: his .312 BABIP, while slightly above league average, is in line with his career average, and actually slightly low for a such a high LD%.

Ronnie is striking out more this year, picking up a K in 20.2% of his AB. His career average is closer to 15% (last year was 14.1%). However, he's not losing his batting eye--his walk rate is 11.6%, roughly double the 6% or so it's been the last three seasons. That argues he's just swinging a bit more like a slugger, increasing his odds of whiffing with a big cut. The heck of it is, he's absorbing those extra strike outs without a hit to his BA, and while increasing his OBP over his career level by 030 and his SLG by 060! Oddly, the extra power is all HR--he's smacked 20 2Bs in 263 AB this year, which is about 1 every 13 AB, only slightly better than his career value of 1 every 15 AB. Compare 2008's 1 HR every 27.5 AB to Ronnie's career average of 1 HR every 45.0 AB! That's exactly double the HR rate this season vs career.

Bottom line: Ronnie is seeing the ball well this season and then smacking the heck out of it when he gets a pitch he likes. Sadly, all his time injured and on the bench (waiting for other starters to be injured, or for someone to express trade interest in FLop...) means that the Nats haven't been able to take much advantage of what looks like a career year for Belliard, batting-wise. For amusement, the Marcels projection for Ronnie's batting line this year is 280/330/420, with 12 HR in 491 AB--right in line with his career average. Keep in mind, that even without his brilliant 2008 year, Belliard is a solid league-average hitter (any of the 9,000 who watch on TV are familiar with HoFer Don Sutton's admiration of his "well-thought-out at-bats"), and there's no shame in being league average. League-average teams play 0.500 ball, and we could do with some of that.

Now, what about in the field? Is Ronnie the answer to all of our problems in the middle? Well, fielding is harder to measure, and 2008 only confuses things. Most seasons, Belliard has played about 1000-1200 innings at 2B, while so far this year he's had roughly 220 innings at each of 2B and 3B, plus 130 innings at 1B! Anyhow, Ronnie is a roughly league-average 2B with the glove. His career FP is 0.981, right around the league average of 0.983 for 2Bs. The same is true of his career range factor per game: 5.05 vs the 2B league average of 4.96. The "yes, but" comes in when we look at 2008: his fielding stats have dropped from league average to clearly below average. His FP (higher is better--league average in parens) at 3B is 0.918 (vs 0.956); at 2B he's 0.974 (vs 0.982); at 1B he's 0.992 (vs 0.993). His range factor (higher is better) is down versus league average (in parens), too: 3B is 2.34 (vs 2.60); 2B is 4.43 (vs 4.84); 1B is 8.30 (vs 9.39). I think we can cut Ronnie some slack at the corners, since they're not his regular position, but his fielding is off at 2B, as well. Ronnie has lost a step in the field. He's not quite the "stone-handed, slow-footed veteran" I rail against when talking about the DH rule, but below-average defense can cancel out the gains from his bat if his glove work deteriorates further. Ronnie will probably be a decent choice for 2009, but a bad one for 2010.

THE AMAZING WILLIE HARRIS

Does Willie want to play? He's been in the bigs for all or part of 8 seasons, and has had 400+ AB in a season only once (2004 with the ChiSox). Compared to his career, this year is nothing short of... well... amazing. His line in 2008 so far is 255/343/450 (OPS+ 107), against a career average of 249/323/345 (OPS+ 75). Take another look--his AVG and OBP are a little bit higher, but he's added 100 points of SLG! WTF? He's got 12 HR this season in 282 AB (1 per 23.5 AB) almost double the 7 he had in his entire MLB career prior to 2008 (career average of 1 per 80 AB). What's he doing?

First of all, Willie's hitting the ball in the air more. Prior to 2007, his FB% was about 30, and his GB% was around 50--he hit half of stuff on the ground. But last year and this year, that switched to about 40% flies and 40% grounders--more stuff hit in the air. His line drive rate is steady at around 20%, and his BABIP is a solidly-below-league-average 0.273, so he's not getting lucky. Sure, he's popping out some (12% of flies in 2008, vs ~5% prior), but I'll take that trade to get 10+ more HR! Amazingly, he's managed to find his power without whiffing more--his strikeout rate of 18% is actually the lowest of his last 6 seasons (it was 20.6% last year). Plus, he has a 10.8% walk rate (matching his career-high 2004 season).

Is Willie for real? Interestingly, Marcels already projected a career season for Harris: 260/340/380 with 5 HR in 354 AB (~90 OPS+), just not quite as career a season as he seems to be having--add in the extra HRs and you're pretty much there. Can he do it next year? Well, he's managed a 345ish OPS+ in each of the three seasons he's had "regular playing time" (300+ PA, in 2004, 2007, 2008) with a 255-270 BA. His isolated patience (OBP-AVG) is a solid 075-090 for the past five seasons, so that all looks legit. The big outlier is the power: prior to 2007, his ISO (SLG-AVG) was around 050-060. In 2007, it jumped to 120, then this season it exploded to 195! Has it finally "clicked" for Willie? The shift of FB%/GB% in 2007-2008 from his prior career argues a different approach or a change to his swing, and the power numbers followed! Now, keep in mind that even though this year is huge for Willie, it's only given us a somewhat-above-average hitter (OPS+ of 109, remember?). If 2009 is somewhere between 2007 and 2008, that'll be about a 260/350/400 line. That's solidly league average, which we can sure as heck use! Let's hope Manny notices that all the big numbers came in years with a lot of PA: Willie not only wants to play, he needs to play.

Fortunately, Willie plays every position, so he can get regular playing time by giving a different guy a day off each game. But, how well does he play every position?

Okay, career FPs (expressed as Willie/League Average): 2B, 0.988/0.981; LF, 0.985/0.983; CF, 2.81/2.69; 3B, 0.909/0.952; SS, 1.000/0.974

Career range factors per game (Willie/league average): 2B, 5.18/4.92; LF, 2.30/1.97; CF, 2.81/2.69; 3B, 1.70/2.62; SS, 3.55/4.55

Ah, but 2008 is even better! Check out this season's RF/G: 2B, 6.15/4.84; LF, 2.60/1.91; CF, 2.94/2.61; 3B, 1.23/2.60; SS, 2.46/3.64.

WH has a solid above-average glove in the OF and at 2B. 3B and SS, not so much (although he has only a few innings at those positions). He dominates the league in LF, but even with his improved 2008 power numbers, he's not really a classic corner slugger--more like a better Ryan Langerhans. Still, he's a hell of a utility guy: league-average or better hitting, and plus defense at three positions (IF and OF!).

WHAT ABOUT NEXT YEAR?

Willie and Ronnie are having terrific seasons. I think there's an argument to be made that Harris is coming into his prime, and that even with some regression next year, we'll be looking at a 100 OPS+ guy who plays great defense--if we can get him enough AB. We're going to have a lot of middle infielders next year, so I'm not sure how easy that will be--we're more likely to see WH as a 4th OF. As for Ronnie, he might regress to league average, too--but 100 OPS+ is nothing shabby in this lineup (Guz took a 100 OPS+ to the AS Game). His defense is a bit more of a worry, and I think 2009 may be his last season on the Nats, given the "youth movement" and the recent middle-infield logjam (unless we get the Dodgers to buy him this season, I guess). I'm assuming that among Dmitri, NJ, and Mark Teixeira, we'll have a steady 1B next year (okay, at least half-joking about Texra).

BONUS NATS STATS: BEYOND AAAA!

I just noticed Ryan Langerhans finally had his 100th PA, making his stats Somewhat Meaningful. His line is a solid league-average 250/394/375 (105 OPS+). How about that Discerning Eye? In 101 PA (80 AB) he's had 18 BB and 20 K. Compared to 2007, he's dropped his K/AB from 38% to 25%, while upping his BB/PA from 11% to 18%! He only has 1 HR this year, but 5 2Bs and 1 3B versus 6 HR, 6 2B and 2 3B last season (in twice as many AB). Is he finally moving past replacement level? Ryan Langerhans--beyond AAAA?

Game 129: It's Willie and Ronnie's world, we just live here...

Doghouse — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 22:26:00 -0000

This one looked like a regression to the games-before-last, with the Nats sleepwalking through the first five innings. Lannan gave up 4 earned runs with no Nats offense--his control was shaky, the defense behind him plagued by miscues (including a bad break on a pop-up by Milledge, and an ill-advised throw to second with the speedy Soriano on third). Then everyone woke up in the sixth, with the offense powering forward to put six runs on the board, anchored by a Willie Harris grand slam! The offense kept charging forward for the rest of the game, putting up runs every inning, with a three-run PH double from Aaron Boone, a Ronnie Belliard HR (plus two 2Bs and a single), and a second Harris HR. Lannan settled down, pitching a scoreless 5th and 6th, and lasting one out into the 7th. Shell gave up one run in the 7th, Rivera pitched a scoreless 8th, and Colome mopped up the 9th. Final score 13-5 Nats.

Ronnie just missed hitting for the cycle when Cubs RF Mark DeRosa made a good play to cut off his double into the corner, which would have been a sure triple otherwise. The Amazing Willie Harris added some defensive dramatics, including a diving grab on a sinking line drive and an outfield assist off of the ivy in LF.

Nats now 46-83. Inning-by-inning after the jump.

The game was delayed about an hour by rain, which I hope allowed the Nats to get a nap. Nats down in order in the first. The Cubs score in the first on a Soriano walk, stolen base, a bloop single (courtesy of Milledge's late break), then a strikeout/double-steal which saw Nieves unwisely making a late throw to second with the speedy Soriano on third. 1-0 Cubs.

Langerhans works a two-out walk in the second, but no other offense from the Nats. Lannan starts off the second with back-to-back walks, and the collapse looks imminent! The threat dissolves without further damage, though.

Another 3 quick outs to start the third. Lannan gives up a gopher ball to Derek Lee to make it 2-0.

To start the fourth? Only two quick outs before Lasto gets a bloop single, followed by a sharp single from Belliard. Lasto forgets there are two outs and only goes to second on the play, but it ends up not mattering when Langerhans flies out deep to the warning track. Lannan gives up a leadoff single, followed by a dinger from Mark DeRosa. 4-0 Cubs.

Um, three quick outs to start the fifth (although, to be fair, Nieves pops out on an 8-pitch AB). For once, three quick outs also end the fifth, with Thrillie Harris making a "routinely spectacular" diving grab of a sinking liner to get the third out.

BonifaciooOOOO leads off the sixth with an infield single, followed by a walk (!) to Guzman (!!). Zimmy draws another walk to load 'em up for a sac fly from Lasto. 4-1 Cubs. Belli-YARD! uh, doubles to score Guz and put runners 2-3. 4-2 Cubs, and that's enough for Marquis. Kearns PHs for Langerhans and draws a walk off of the new pitcher Cotts, bringing up THRILLIE Harris. Does he want to play? GRAND SLAM! 6-4 Nats. Lannan bats for himself (now up to 70 pitches after a 4-pitch 5th) to end the Nats half of the 6th. Three quick outs from the Cubs in the sixth, with The Incomparable Willie Harris playing a line drive off the wall perfectly and throwing out Mark DeRosa at second to end the inning on 7 pitches.

BonifacioooOOO slug-bunts one to third for another leadoff single to start the seventh against the new pitcher Howry. He steals second and Guz grounds one through the right side. 7-4 Nats. Lannan gives up a leadoff single and gets one out before making way for Steven Shell, who gives up an RBI single on the way to ending the inning. 7-5 Nats.

Chad "No, not that Chad" Gaudan comes out to pitch the 8th for the Cubs. Ronnie B. tags him for a leadoff double, and THRILLIE gets the intentionals. Flores singles to load 'em up, then BOOOONE clears 'em out with a PH double off the wall on the first pitch! 10-5 Nats! Saoool comes out to build a bridge to the 9th inning, giving up a one-out double but escaping the inning quickly.

Two quick outs start the ninth, then Belli-YARD decides to live up to his nickname and make it 11-5 Nats. Kearns draws a walk, then THRILLIE goes yard again! 13-5 Nats. Flores doubles into the corner but gets stranded when Pinch-Hittin' Pete Orr strikes out. Colome is out to finish it off, allowing a single to former Nat and present Nats-killer Daryle Ward, but otherwise getting three outs as quickly as the "Human Rain Delay" can. Will the Nats be the new Lovable Losers? Maybe--but not today!

Are the Nats the next loveable losers?

hmlee — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 16:06:07 -0000

Well here is one die-hard Cubs fan taking you guys up on your offer to make a fan post... I'll be listening to the WGN radio cast of today's game while at work (I have a boss who loves baseball so it all works out)...

Anyway, I was thinking on what to write about the Natioanls when this thought came to me. Are the Nationals the next loveable losers? Bear in mind that, as a Cubs fan, I don't mean this as an insult but rather as the highest of compliments. My Cubbies are doing excellently this year and look poised to maybe, just maybe, end the futility in October. If they do accomplish this feat, it seems like the baseball world will need another team to be the loveable losers....

What say you Nats fans? Are you headed for years of waiting 'til next year like us Cubs fans or do you think you'll make a run at the WS sooner rather than later?

Poll

Are the Nationals destined to be the next loveable losers?

Tuesday Nats Stats--Out with the old, in with the new

Doghouse — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 18:06:31 -0000

So, did I miss anything while I was away the last week? Lessee.... trades... losses... injuries... Sounds like not. Well, we've had a few games to get some indicators about whether JimBo is a genius or not, so let's take a look!

Unjustified statistical analysis of the recent (and some not-so-recent) acquisitions after the jump in this special Thursday edition of Tuesday Nats stats. (As always, ERA+/OPS+ are relative to league average: 100 is average, >100 is better, <100 is worse.)

OUT WITH THE OLD

A fair bit of joy has been the jettisoning of some dead weight from the Nats roster:

Paul LoDuca: 55 OPS+, range factor well below league average at the many positions he's played this year, 2 CS and 13 SB against. Good riddance.
Johnny Estrada: -1 OPS+ (that's right, he has a negative OPS...), decent range factor, and a nice 6 CS and 13 SB behind the dish. But I gotta say: good riddance here, too.
Felipe Lopez: 64 OPS+, average-to-below-average range, terrible attitude. Somehow he's managing a 119 OPS+ in 45 PA so far with the Cards, but anyone want to take odds on whether he can keep it up? Didn't think so. Good riddance.
Luis Ayala: 5.77 ERA/74 ERA+ is poor but not too awful, the 1.5-1 K:BB ratio is shaky but not terrible, the 1.474 WHIP higher than we'd like... Still, that 1-8 is all blown saves and winnable games lost. Our bridge guy has the stats of a mop-up guy. Sad for an Original Nat who was good for so many seasons, but good riddance again.
Jon Rauch: 2.98 ERA / 143 ERA+, 1.01 WHIP, 4-2 record with 17 saves... pretty sweet. I think we're all sorry to see the Big Guy leave, and how we feel about long term depends on:

IN WITH THE NEW

But we've also picked up some new blood (and gotten back some "old" new blood from the DL):

Emilio Bonifacio: We got the Fast Guy for the Big Guy. So far, he's managed a FLop-esque 60 OPS+ (238/274/338), but he has taken a few walks (er... four) in 84 PA. He also chases stuff down out of the zone (24 Ks!), but how about those 2 doubles and 3 triples? He'll need some help with pitch recognition and patience, but I'm sure he'll get it, since he's the only one in the line up with that problem, right? His range and FP are average-to-below-average, but he's still young. What was FLop's excuse?
Alberto Gonzalez: In his 15 PA before getting hurt, he got a blistering 221 OPS+, managing 3 2Bs and 2 BBs. Below average range in the field. Meaninglessly-small sample size on which to judge performance? What's your point?
Anderson Hernandez: 298 OPS+ (750/750/750) in, er... 4 PA... Here's your meaninglessly-small sample size!
Lastings Milledge: 92 OPS+ (261/324/407) with 12 HR, 17 SB (6 CS). He's the Nats' leading slugger and is actually managing an average-to-above-average range and FP out in CF. Lasto seems to be settling in, slowly but surely.
Elijah Dukes: 110 OPS+ (264/364/434) with 6 HR, 10 SB (1 CS) as he entered his third DL stint. In the field, his range is above average, and he's got 5 assists and a DP in limited playing time. That's money, plain and simple.

TWELVE LOSSES IN A ROW!

Yeah, I know, things haven't turned around much, have they? But we've ditched some legitimate dead weight and replaced it with light-hitting middle infielders who are at least no worse than what came before, and have potential to grow and improve. Losing Rauch smarts a bit, but Dukes and Milledge are looking like legit building blocks. But am I expecting Boney to strike out 4 times against Old Man Moyer? Yep.

CELLAR DWELLERS - A POSITIVE OUTLOOK

LOUtheMETSfan — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 16:59:41 -0000

Good afternoon NATS fans!

Today the Washington Post (WP) put out an article that I thought fans might feel good reading about.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/18/AR2008081802050.html

The most important point of the article, I felt, was the following: "Which makes it all the more remarkable how little booing one hears at the ballpark, how generally welcoming and optimistic Washington fans are with regard to the young folks who are being brought up from here and there to try to create some future for a team going through a truly hideous series of events, and how many people keep turning out for games."

Gang, remember the lovable losers of Boston? How about those of Chicago (CUBS)? Those franchises lost for eons. Look at them both in the past five years. Competitive and winners. It's only a matter of time before the CUBS get their ring. This year most likely will be it. But even more importantly, look at the turnout for those teams even w/out rings...PHENOMENAL!

I know that time is the most precious thing to some of us and some of us don't want to wait to be winners but...The NATS time will come...Later probably before sooner.

Are the Lerners serious about winning, or is this another Bob Short type owner?

wxguy — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 14:37:42 -0000

I love baseball. I love watching baseball. Why then am I unhappy?

With each passing day I become more convinced that, either the Lerners are completely dumb as to what it takes to produce a winning MLB team, or they are a bunch of tightwads out to make a quick buck by keeping labor costs to the absolute minimum, and then selling the team in about five years ala Bob Short, at twice what they paid for it? The Lerners, sons and father, are worth something in the neighborhood of $6-8 billion. They are probably 3-4 times richer than George Steinbrenner of the Yankees. So far they have shown a total unwillingness to open the wallet and bring one or two blue chip players to the team. Everything they do relative to player costs is penny pinching. The latest example is letting their top draft pick get away because he wanted above MLB standard bonus, and a chance to play right away in the MLB. The last minute offers to Crow were a joke. They refused to sign him even though at least four other teams, including the Orioles, signed their first draft picks with bonuses above MLB minimum. They have had more than one opportunity to get a couple, or even, one blue chip player on this team to provide real excitement, team leadership, and around which to build a team. You don't build a team with all rookies, or a bunch of has beens that never were. Even the Braves back in the early 90's, late 80's, which Stan Kirsten constantly uses as the example, had a couple of established blue chip players around which to build.

I won't go over all the other troubling signs as to how the Lerners are going to run this team, from not having any kind of a real radio network (of course, the Nats don't have many listerners, their radio network is almost nonexistent. Even Hagerstown, MD, a Nats farm team town, have no radio signal to listen to), to not resigning their number one player, Zimmerman, to a real major league contract, They have now created a reputation as penny pinching owners. Do you think any quality, blue chip players want to play here?

I'm not going to blame Jim Bowden, Manny Acta, or Stan Kasten, because I believe the Lerners have told the team not to spend to build this team. When or why are the sport writers in this town going to really challenge the Lerners as to their sincerity about spending money to make the Nats a champion???? The minor league Nats teams are only in the middle of the pack not the top. Our manager and key players have not been signed for long term contracts. Anybody who is making a million or more on this team, seems to be in danger of being released or traded in the next year.The honeymoon is over!

I predict that Manny Acta will leave this team within the next year and manage the Mets. I predict that the Lerners will either sell the team for a huge profit, or move it to Las Vegas within the next 5 years.

Gosh, I hope I'm dead wrong because I love National League baseball in DC. Please do something to prove I'm wrong. It very hard to pay major league ticket prices to watch a minor league team play.

wxguy