To The Future and Beyond With Washington's Nationals...

I believe the 2009 season began on September 28th, 2008, the moment Emilio Bonifacio's weak grounder reached the glove of Phillies' first baseman Chris Coste, who tossed to the Philly pitcher Clay Condrey covering first, to finish off the Nationals for loss number 102 of 161, and everything that's happened since has been an attempt to build for the future, for 2009 and beyond, including the trade that sent Bonifacio to Florida in return for 29-year-old left fielder Josh Willingham and 24-year-old left-hander Scott Olsen, who could end up being the steal of the offseason at the top of the DC rotation as a veteran on a talented young starting staff. Overly optimisitic? I've got pessimism for you...

2008 will go down in DC baseball history as the year the Washington Nationals lost 102 games and failed to sign their 1st Round Draft pick...(Of course, they'll get the 9th pick(9A) in this year's draft as compensation for failing to sign Aaron Crow, and the first pick of this year's draft for failing to win more than 59 games...) and it was also the year that the Nationals opened their new ballpark, Nationals Park, to polite applause, but attendance at the games only, not in front of radios or TV's in any significant way in the DC Metro area...(Is that way they call it? I'm from up North...)

...Now 2009 starts with the failed attempt to land their main free agent target, (whose name we'll not mention), and two months before Spring Training, with the new year now literally underway, no other signifant additions, (outside of Daniel "Potential" Cabrera), to what was, must I remind you, a 102-loss team...Nationals' Team President Stan Kasten told Washington Post writer Thomas Boswell, as quoted in an article entitled, "Nats Go All In", that in his opinion, the Nationals, "...already had a terrific offseason," with the additions of Cabrera, Olsen and Willingham, but when pressed by an incredulous Mr. Boswell, Mr. Kasten said:

"'We're determined to do more and be better in '09. We've already being(sic) looking at every option every day, not just Teixeira. His signing may start other moves in the industry. Now we know what the Yankees can pay. Let's see what everybody else will pay.'"

...And DC GM Jim Bowden let the baseball world know, in MLB.com writer Bill Ladson's article today, entitled, "GM Bowden not done improving Nats", that the Nationals weren't done improving their roster, with Adam Dunn and Orlando Hudson still at the top of their wish list...as a replacement for first baseman Nick Johnson and a leadoff hitter and second baseman, respectively, should the free agents choose to join the Nationals...and just as the DC Front Office has been saying all winter, Mr. Bowden once again assures fans:

"'We are exploring a lot of possibilities,' Bowden said. 'I think, obviously, we would like to have a big left-handed bat in the middle of our lineup. So that's a priority. We want to continue to add starting pitching and bullpen. I would say that most of our discussions were for those three areas.'"

But two paragraphs later, Mr. Ladson writes, "Don't expect the Nationals to acquire a big-name pitcher", and when he lists the projected starting rotation for 2009, it's John Lannan, Olsen, Jordan Zimmerman(n), Collin Balester and Shairon Martis, (not Daniel Cabrera?), so what makes you think veteran bats like Dunn or Hudson are going to want to become part of the rebuilding process in DC unless the Nationals outspend the competition to bring them in, as Mr. Kasten seems to be intimating they might in the quote above...(from the Washington Post)...

One has to wonder...Do Dunn or Hudson mean as much to the developing Nationals as they do to the contending teams that are in need of one or two extra pieces in their attempts to compete, while the Nationals are attempting to become competitive enough to regain the interest of their own fanbase...Will Washington overwhelm Dunn with an offer that draws him away from the Dodgers or Cubs? Will Washington sign Hudson when infielders Anderson Hernandez and Ronnie Belliard are already on the roster? Will Washington become interested in Manny Ramirez if no one steps up to sign him? And what are they going to do about all those outfielders? That's enough questions for now...

Instead of looking back, which folks are wont to do in the intervening week between the Holidays and the New Year, let's look forward, after all, who wants to relive a 102-loss season, wasn't one time through that experience enough? There's a new year next week and a new season in late March, early April...and still a lot of questions left to be answered about the composition of the '09 Washington Nationals' roster...

1. Should DC sign Adam Dunn? Will Dunn want to sign with DC?

Washington Post writer Chico Harlan mentioned the fact that there was a difference of opinion in the DC Front Office on this one in Mr. Harlan's Nationals Journal post entitled, "Teixeira to Yankees", where he writes that, "Perhaps they will explore Adam Dunn as an alternative, but even that is still part of an internal debate," and Mr. Dunn himself is on record stating, much like another first base target the Nationals just missed out on, that he'd like to play for a team with a chance to win, and it's been rumored that the Brewers, Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays have interest, (two of those three meet Dunn's criteria), so it will interesting to see if DC GM Jim Bowden's personal relationship with Dunn is enough to convince him to take the Nationals' money...??

2. So far, Lannan, Olsen and Cabrera are expected to start...Will Cabrera earn the spot, and if so, who fills the last two?

When asked this week, in the most recent edition of, "Mailbag: Why take a risk on Cabrera?", why the Washington Nationals were willing to take a chance on free agent pitcher Daniel Cabrera when he'd had minimal success over the previous five seasons in Baltimore?, MLB.com's Bill Ladson told the Nationals' fan, (who happened to be from Montreal): 

"Washington admires Cabrera's potential and feel that pitching coach Randy St. Claire can fix him. Cabrera is 27 and the Nationals have always loved the way St. Claire has worked with young pitchers."

Is viewing Cabrera as a younger Tim Redding, with arguably more raw talent than the former Nationals' starter a fair assessment? It took Tim Redding seven years in the Majors before he found a real home in DC, having his best season as a pro as a 30-year-old veteran last year under Randy St. Claire's guidance...(uh, at least in the 1st half...)...Will facing one less batter make the difference for Cabrera, who's pitched exclusively for Baltimore in the America League? (excepting Interleague play...where Cabrera's compiled a (2-11) record with a 6.08 ERA in 16 starts and 1 relief appearance, allowing 93 hits, 64 ER's, 18 HR's and 45 walks with 70 K's in 94.2 IP against the National League...according to Cabrera's baseball-reference.com stat page).

Does Cabrera deserve a starting spot over Collin Balester, Shairon Martis or Jordan ZImmerman? Those are just a few of the other names being mentioned as serious contenders for a role in DC's '09 Rotation? If Shawn Hill's able to come back that's one less spot for the younger pitchers...and what about Matt Chico, Mike O'Connor, Tyler Clippard and Jason Bergmann, all of whom are currently on the Nationals' 40-Man Roster? Wait a minute, am I complaining about too much pitching?

3. If DC doesn't sign Dunn, Who backs up Nick Johnson at first?

Yes, this is essentially the same question Washington went into Spring Training last season asking, but unless they add Adam Dunn or another first baseman via signing or trade, it's still going to be the big question heading into the '09 season as well. DC GM Jim Bowden told a cyberquestioner, as quoted by MLB.com's Bill Ladson, in a transcript of an online Q&A entitled, "Bowden takes questions from fans", that Dmitri Young has:

"...worked very hard this offseason and has lost considerable weight. We expect him to be in the same shape in Spring Training that he was in when he won the NL Comeback Player of the Year Award in 2007."

Johnson is 30, and hasn't played a full season since 2006 due to various injuries. Dmitri Young, 35, played 50 games last year, 136 games in '07, 48 in '06, so maybe this year will be a bounce back campaign again...But that's hard to count on with the nature of his recent health problems...Is Chris Marrero, drafted as a third baseman, turned into an outfielder, and then asked to play first, the answer, even though he suffered serious leg and ankle injuries last season and has never played above A-ball? Can Bill Rhinehart, who impressed this Spring, but hasn't played above and struggled at Double-AA Harrisburg late last season make a case for himself? Free agent signing, Matt Whitney? Larry Broadway? He's still unsigned as a MiLFA I believe...?(ed. note - " I need a better acronym than MiLFA...???")

These, clearly, aren't the only questions...I mean, how many outfielders can one team have? Who starts at second for DC in '09? Is DC Manager Manny Acta really pushing for a backup catcher that can challenge Jesus Flores for the starting job? Why not focus on the future now instead of dwelling on the past?...

In an AP article entitled, "Lerner selected as new Nationals owner" at ESPN.com shortly after the Lerner Group purchased the Washington Nationals from Major League baseball in May of 2006, the newly-named Team President Stan Kasten set out the agenda for beginning to rebuild the barren system the DC-based group had inherited from the MLB owners and Montreal:

"Kasten said his Nationals will focus on pitching and grooming talent -- core elements of what worked so well during his time with the Braves, who have won 14 consecutive division titles...'We're going to spend money on the minor leagues, player development and scouting,' Kasten said. 'We have principles.'"

MLB.com writer Bill Ladson started his 5/4/06 article entitled, "Notes: Robinson likes Lerner priority", by relaying an anecdote from the Nationals' Hall of Fame Manager, Frank Robinson, who in Mr. Ladson's words, "...has always said that the Minor Leagues are the lifeline of a franchise", and later Mr. Ladson notes Mr. Robinson's prediction that the rebuilding effort "...will take two to three years, as long as the organization is patient. He used the Braves as the model franchise..."

(ed. note - "...And not only the Nationals, who have talked of trading for a power bat this winter, but also the Braves, (who have come close to dealing some Grade-A talent in their pursuit of Peavy), should heed the advice Frank Robinson offers in his assessment of the old Atlanta Management's approach to building from within:

"'Dealing with the Braves, when I was with the Orioles, you couldn't touch their A prospects, their top prospects," Robinson said. "They would walk away from a deal before you could get any of those players. Those are the players they had marked that probably will be playing with us within a year or two years."

As Mr. Robinson predicted, two years after the Lerner Group and Kasten took over the Nationals, the results on the Farm are beginning to show, not only in the promotion to DC of players like Collin Balester, Shairon Martis, John Lannan, Mike Hinckley, etc., but also on the field in the Minors where the various affiliates have significantly improved. Former Washington Post Nationals-beat writer Barry Svrluga wrote a post at Nationals Journal in January of '08 noting the results of the Baseball America rankings of MLB Minor League systems entitled, "Baseball America: Nats farm system now no. 9", (ed. note - Which eschewed the use of poss. apostrophes!"), while reporting that the Nationals' System as a whole had jumped some twenty-one spots in the rankings from 30th (or last) overall to 9th, (as the title gave away), which was, Mr. Svrluga noted, the second largest jump by a franchise in the last decade.

(ed. note - "Coincidentally, Mr. Svrluga notes in the Nationals Journal post that the largest jump in the rankings was made by the Texas Rangers, who jumped, "...24 slots, from 28th to fourth, this year, helped by major trades of Eric Gagne and Mark Teixeira.")

In 2009, one Nationals' affiliate, the Class-A Potomac Nationals even went so far as to win their league's title, taking the Carolina League crown...and now they've been designated by MiLB.com voters as the 3rd best team in the Minors this season in the Minor League "Team Of The Year" voting, behind only, NY Yankees' Double-AA affiliate, the Trenton Thunder, who took the Eastern League title and the San Francisco Giants' Class-A affiliate from Georgia, the Savannah Sand Gnats, who were the South Atlantic League's best. (ed. note - "For those link-averse amongst us, the write-up on the MiLB.com award page reads:

"The Nationals combined to lead the Carolina League in batting (.265), runs scored (720), hits (1,234) and fielding percentage (.975) en route to their first title since 1989.")

Just this week, John Sickels at Minor League Ball.com, presented his "EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY" assessment of the state of the Nationals' system in a post entitled, "Washington Nationals Top 20 Prospects for 2009", where he names 2007 2nd Round pick Jordan Zimmermann, (who pitched the first half of the year with the Potomac Nationals before moving to Double-A Harrisburg), as the top prospect in the DC system, noting, "...I liked this guy in college, and I think he is significantly underrated on a national basis." Mr. Sickels then offers this analysis of the entire DC system after presenting his full (preliminary) Top 20 Prospects list:

"The Nationals system is not as bad as you think it is, but it isn’t very good, either. They have a lot of depth in C+ style prospects, but lack impact talents beyond the top few, and even guys like Marrero and Detwiler have big question marks. Health has been a big issue for a lot of their players. They need to continue being aggressive in the draft, and further investments in Latin America would likely help."

(ed. note - "Quoting Mr. Sickels from his post, "...'Reports on these guys and over 1,000 others can be found in the 2009 Baseball Prospect Book. Pre-order for January 31st shipping now!'")

(another ed. note - "The Nationals Farm Authority's Brian Oliver's own assessment of Mr. Sickel's list entitled, 'John Sickels Nationals Top 20 Prospects',  is a must-read post for DC fans.")

WINTER LEAGUE ROUNDUP...(all links to MiLB.com player pages)...

Tigres del Licey second baseman Anderson Hernandez was 0 for 2 with a run scored and 2 walks in a 16-8 loss to the Gigantes del Cibao. Starting at third for Licey? Ronnie B. Ronnie Belliard, who starts his Winter by going 2 for 4 with 2 HR's and 6 RBI's in the loss. (ed. note - "Watch out, Hernandez, Belli's Back! Once the Nationals don't get Teixeira, how about a trade with LAA for Kendry Morales, who started at first for Cibao tonight, and after hitting his 6th HR and collecting 4 RBI's, is hitting .451 in 18 games with 10 doubles, 6 HR's and 18 RBI's...just sayin'.")...Tigres del Licey RF Emilio Bonifaci...Eh, he's a Marlin now...In Puerto Rico Winter League action, Criollos de Caguas' DH Justin Maxwell went 0 for 3 with a walk and a K, and Garrett Guzman was 0 for 1 in a PH appearance. DC backstop Jesus Flores was 0 for 2 against the Cardinales de Lara in a 2-0 loss for Flores' Navegantes del Magallanes. 

end transmission.