On The Hill...

San Francisco starter Kevin Correia's started 10 games this season and appeared in 11 for the Giants. The 27-year-old right hander is just (1-5), with a 5.81 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, .286 BAA, and 60 hits allowed in 52.2 innings pitched, over which he's given up 34 ER's, 8 HR's and 26 walks while striking out 35. Correia's faced the Nationals 8 times in his six MLB seasons as a Giant, with a (1-1) record and a 2.55 ERA in 17.2 IP against the DC franchise. 

At home in AT&T Park this season, Correia's (1-2) with a 5.26 ERA in 25.2 innings, a 1.40 WHIP and a .265 BAA, with his one '08 win coming in San Francisco back on April 10th against the Cardinals. Over his career, Correia's (6-7) in Frisco, with 20 starts, 73 appearances, a 4.31 ERA and 117 K's in 163.0 innings pitched in front of the Bay Area fans...

Some of the AT&T Park crowd will no doubt be cheering for Correia's opponent on the mound, DC righty (and Huntington Beach, CA native) Collin Balester, (1-2) who is all of 3 starts into his MLB career, with a win in his MLB Debut and two losses to follow, during which the 22-year old right hander has posted a 5.87 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and a .254 BAA. Two of Balester's three starts with DC have come on the road, in Florida, (the debut win), and Cincinnati, where Balester pitched 5.2 innings, and allowed 4 hits, 5 ER's, 1 HR and 3 walks...

Nationals' #'s Against Kevin Correia...

Austin Kearns - 2 for 7, .286 AVG, 2 HR's, 2 RBI's, .375 OBP, 1.143 SLG, 1.518 OPS.

Ryan Langerhans - 1 for 1, 1.000 AVG, 1 HR, 2 RBI's, 2 BB. 

Balester Breakdown...

Balester vs Lefties - .217 BAA, 1.88 WHIP, 1 HR in 5.1 IP, 5 hits, 5 BB, 3 K's. 

Balester vs Righties - .275 BAA, 1.20 WHIP, 1 HR in 10.0 IP, 11 hits, 1 BB, 6 K's.

DC Roster Shuffle...

With former DC closer Jon Rauch already fitted for an extra-long D-Backs' uniform and out on the mound before some Nationals' fans had even realized he'd been traded, the Nationals made a move to replace Rauch's arm in the Nationals' bullpen, assigning Emilio Bonifacio to Triple-AAA Columbus and recalling another former D-Backs' prospect, right-handed hurler Garrett Mock to the Washington roster, where, according to MLB.com's Bill Ladson's article entitled, " Nats recall right-hander Mock": 

"The Nationals are planning to use Mock in the bullpen for the time being. Manager Manny Acta said the organization still considers Mock a starter."

If the Nationals do still think of Mock as a starter as Acta's quoted stating above, what do you think about effectively "wasting" innings on his arm by using Mock out of the DC bullpen instead of...say...letting him start in the Triple-AAA playoffs, where he could gain important big-game experience? Why bring up Mock instead of Clippers' reliever?

Mock, however, will not be replacing Jon Rauch as the Nationals' closer...That job is being given, for the time being, to "Wild" Joel Hanrahan, as the readers of federalbaseball.com once again correctly predicted in a poll that was started as soon as news of the Rauch trade broke and before Washington's official announcement about their ninth-inning plans...

When will Hanrahan get his first chance to close? Is there some chance of the fans negotiating about Hanrahan's closer music? Brooks and Dunn? Anyway...Game time is 10:15 live out of San Francisco, California's AT&T Park, for the second of this three game series between the Nationals and Giants. DC's Road Trip after 4 games...(2-2). Will it be the Balester who dominated when he debuted? Or the Balester who struggled in his second and third starts in the Majors? Balester's back in California? Zimmerman's back at third...and federalbaseball.com is back and ready to watch the Nationals...Who's watching the Nationals?

Work has let up enough that I can screw around and surf baseball stats for a bit.  A recent post on Nationals Review got me thinking about league-average and replacement-level players.  It turns out that I hold the common misconception that the two are the same. They're not.  "League average" is a player who's in the middle of the pack in the big leagues.  That's a decent ballplayer--you might reasonably expect a team where everyone is league average to play 0.500 ball.  Not so with "replacement level"--that's a scrub out of AAA who you call up when someone gets hurt (think Roger Bernadina, or the 2007 version of Ryan Langerhans).  He's probably okay in the field, but not really ready for big-league pitching. A team of "replacement level" players is essentially a triple-A team; we're talking bad like '62 Mets bad with a record around 44-118 (see this article for a good discussion).

So, with all the unkind references to the "NAAAts" that you see around the interwebs, I thought I'd take a look at how close we are to league average. Stats, as usual, from the estimable baseball-reference.com.  As always, "league average" on stats like OPS+ is 100: higher than 100 is above average; lower than 100 is below average.  So, who's league average? Answers after the jump!

Continue reading this post »

Thrillie Harris connects with a curve from the man who’s famous for them, Giants’ lefty Barry Zito, and it's leadoff single which is quickly erased by Cristian Guzman’s DP grounder. Ryan ZIMMERMAN!!! grounds out to second in his first at bat back in the lineup since May 25th, Zito’s through the top of the first...The Mature Fred Lewis launches the second pitch from Jason Bergmann out of the park in right, but not into the drink, 1-0 Giants. Ronnie Belliard can’t come up with the throw from the Nationals’ $16 million dollar man Cristian Guzman, allowing Eugenio Velez to reach first safely. Velez steals second. Randy Winn flies out to right, Velez takes third. Bergmann comes high and tight on Bengie Molina, who promptly launches the next pitch to deep center for a two-tun blast and a 3-0 Giants’ lead after one...

Austin Kearns hits an opposite field fly out. Ronnie Belliard flies out to Fred Lewis in left. Jesus Flores...TRIPLES by a diving Aaron Rowand in center. Paul Lo Duca...two-out RBI double through third and into left, Flores scores. 3-1 Giants...Jason Bergmann gets Rich Aurilia swinging at a nasty breaker. Omar Vizquel lines out to Thrillie Harris in center. Zito ground out to send himself back to the mound...Willie Harris battles Zito, but ends up called out looking a two-strike fastball on the outside edge. Ryan Zimmerman gets robbed of a line drive single by a backhand Omar Vizquel catch at short that ends the DC third...Guzman throws out Fred Lewis. Velez chops one back to the mound that Bergman handles. Randy Winn pops out to short center, where Guzman grabs it. 3-1 SF after three. 

Austin Kearns doubles off the left field wall and beats Fred Lewis’ throw in from left. Ronnie Belliard walks in front of Jesus Flores...WWJD? Broken bat grounder that avoids the DP, runners on second and third for Paul Lo Duca. Lo Duca chops one straight down, and it bounces over the mound for an infield single, and an RBI, 3-2 GIants. Felipe Lopez strikes out swinging likes he’s never seen a curve before. Zito gets a groundout from Bergmann to end the DC fourth...Bengie Molina takes Bergmann deep again, this time to left, and it’s 4-2 Giants... Aaron Rowand flies out to Kearns. John Bowker backs Kearns up to the wall for the second out. Felipe Lopez throws away a grounder from Rich Aurilia. Omar Vizquel throws his bat at a fastball and drills it into right, far away from Austin Kearns...Aurilia scores, 5-2 SF after four. (B)

Thrillie Harris hits a towering home run to right that...even..tually...goes out for a solo shot that cuts the Giants’ lead to 5-3. One out later, Ryan Zimmerman singles for his first hit since 5/29 (when the Nationals were 22-29), but Zimmerman ends up stranded at second when Kearns flies out, and Belliard walks to bring up Jesus Flores...who K’s swinging to end the DC fifth...Freddie Lewis grounds out to Guzman at short. Eugenio Velez grounds out to Belliard at first. Winn grounds to first, Bergmann’s through five, still 5-3 Giants. 

Lo Duca pops out to the catcher on Zito’s first pitch of the sixth. Felipe Lopez watches Zito's curve all the way in this time to try to see if he understands it (Lopez is probably better off watching, cause it's a brutal pitch.)...Johnny Estrada lines out to Winn in right...Jesus “Everyday” Colome gets a fly ball out from Bengie Molina. Aaron Rowand flies out to Zimmerman at third. Colome throws a fastball to the backstop, but ends up getting Bowker looking at another fastball on the outside edge...

Thrillie Harris starts the seventh, Lefty vs Lefty against Giants’ reliever Jack Taschner.  Harris grounds to second, and almost beats the throw to first. Taschner walks Guzman in front of Ryan Zimmerman, who takes the second straight free pass. Taschner’s done. Austin Kearns will face Sergio Romo, and Kearns takes a 3-2 slider insider for a called strike three. Belliard grounds out to first...Stand up and stretch...Jesus Colome comes back out and gets a groundout from Aurilia and a fly ball out to center from Vizquel for Colome’s second scoreless. Ivan Ochoa pops up down the line in left and he’s safe at second after a sliding Lo Duca has it bounce off after running at a full sprint from left center to the line...Colome out in favor of DC lefty Charlie Manning. Manning vs Fred Lewis. Lefty vs Lefty. Lewis pops out foul of third, and into the stan...Ryan Zimmerm-THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!! Zimmerman reaches into the stands and catches it as his hip connects with the wall. 5-3 Giants after seven. 

Bleach-blonde Giants' reliever Tyler Walker’s on for the top of the eighth. Jesus Flores grounds out to Velez at short. Paul Lo Duca hears the boos from the Giants’ fans as he steps up...and Lo Duca flies out to Rowand in left center. Felipe Lopez, happy to see someone other than Zito, doubles off the base of the wall in left with two down...but Ryan Langerhans grounds out to first to end the DC eighth. Saul “Sa-ool” Rivera gets a groundout from Velez for the first out of the Giants’ half of the frame...Felipe Lopez makes a good play fielding Randy Winn’s grounder, but can’t make a throw to first. Bengie Molina up, Winn steals second. Molina walks. Aaron Rowand chops a grounder...just...out of Zimmerman’s reach...Winn scores. 6-3 Giants. Austin Kearns makes a shoestring grab to rob John Bowker of extra bases. Rich Aurilia flies out to Kearns, 6-3 after eight. 

Brian “Not That Brian” Wilson vs Willie Harris to start the ninth. Harris grounds out to second. DC Native and D-efensive replacement at second, Emmanuel Burriss robs Guzman of a single to center for the second out. Ryan Zimmerman...takes a full-count fastball inside for ball four. Austin Kearns gets down 0-2 and Brian Wilson throws a 100mph fastball right through Kearns’ bat, strike three swinging, 6-3 Giants win. 

(B) = The BLAME GAME (ed. note - "An error and a two-out run makes a 4-2 game with the top of the order coming up a 5-2 in two, two-out at bats...")

Nationals now 38-62. (Countdown to 100 Losses Stands At...38.) 

There's a lot going on today at federalbaseball.com, so much so that the Game Thread has been buried way down on the front page, so I figured I'd provide some easy navigation for anyone who wants to stay up late and watch the Nationals in San Francisco, while at the same time rounding up all the news from a busy day in DC Baseball for anyone who's just starting to catch up...

Tonight's Game Thread - Game Thread: Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants- 2008 Game 100 of 162. "Do You Know What The Kids Call Ryan Zimmerman?"

Dave at Bottomfeeder Baseball's Posts -

"Nats Extend Guzman Two Years, Terms Undisclosed."

"The Hits Keep On Coming: Nats Trade Rauch For Bonifacio."

eylf1004 was first with the news of the Rauch Trade @ federalbaseball.com:

"Rauch Traded."

Here's a look at what the D-Backs' fans at the SBN's Diamondbacks' blog AZ Snakepit think of the trade - (courtesy of Red Reign's post):

"Emilio Bonifacio Traded For Relief Arm Jon Rauch."

And as an added bonus, Doghouse checked in before all the signing and trading started with a new "Tuesday Nats Stats", which will be featured tomorrow, on Wednesday where it belongs, but feel free to preview the front page from 9:00 am now...

The Return of Tuesday Nats Stats: "Who's league average?"

Who's Watching the Watchmen? Ooops, Sorry, I mean, "Who's Watching the Nationals?

The Results of Federalbaseball.com's most recent poll asking:

Which Nationals' Player Is Most Likely To Be Moved Before The July 31st Trade Deadline?

Results: 46 Votes Cast...

Jon Rauch : 16 votes - 34%

Felipe Lopez : 14 votes - 30%

Paul Lo Duca : 9 votes - 19%

Tim Redding : 5 votes - 10%

Now the BIG ? is BIG ENOUGH for A New POLL...

The Nationals traded Rauch to the Arizona Diamondbacks for 23-year-old second baseman Emilio Bonifacio, who made his MLB debut last September 7th, and was described at the time in MLB.com D-Backs' writer Michael Schwartz's article, "Notes: D-Backs get reinforcements", where Mr. Schwartz wrote:

"Bonifacio, the only player called up from Double-A, provides a speed factor the club did not have. The switch-hitter could be used to pinch-run or as a pinch-hitter leading off an inning with the kind of speed that Melvin compared to the Mets' Jose Reyes and some of the best runners in baseball."

While I personally will be upset that I won't get to write about the Tallest Pitcher in MLB History as often, I did see this coming(Rauch moving that is), and this is a trade that will pay off in a few years when the 5'10'' right-handed hitting and throwing infielder hopefully plays a part in the Nationals' rebuilt starting lineup...

I can imagine it now...

Ryan Zimmerman, Esmailyn Gonzalez, Emilio Bonifacio and Chris Marrero around the infield, and Elijah Dukes, Lastings Milledge and Michael Burgess left to right in the outfield, with Jesus Flores catching Ross Detwiler, Collin Balester, Josh Smoker, Jordan Zimmerman(n), etc...Ahh!!!...2012....So close and yet...

Just caught the tail end of this on ESPN.  Rauch was traded to the Diamondbacks. In return we get 2B Emilio Bonifacio.  What does everyone think?  Did we do okay?  Did we get robbed?  I for one don't know enough about the kid.  He was a PCL all star in AAA ball, but that is about all I can find so far.  Also he is listed as the D-Backs 6th best prospect in Baseball America. Furthermore, with Rauch gone who will close? Also who will be on the chopping block next Lopez maybe?

The Nationals issued a press release this morning describing the surgery and rehab for Wily Mo Pena:

Earlier today, Nationals outfielder Wily Mo Pena had successful surgery performed on his left shoulder by Dr. Timothy Kremchek in Cincinnati, OH. Dr. Kremchek repaired a significant partial tear of his rotator cuff, as well as a tear and fraying of his posterior labrum.

Pena will be placed in a sling for approximately 3 weeks, at which time a formal rehab program will begin. Pena will be out for 4-6 months, but is expected to be ready for Spring Training 2009.

Bottom Line: Pena may very well have played his last game in a Washington uniform, depending on the route the front office goes between now and the beginning of Spring Training next season. It's not a stretch to think that Pena's future hinges on GM Jim Bowden being retained. Pena was terrible this season, both at the plate (.205/.243/.267 with two homers and 10 rbis in 195 at bats) and in the field.

Apparently some of that can be attributed to the injury. Pena's actions, however, continue a disturbing trend in either players hiding or downgrading their injury, or the team's inability to properly diagnose the problem and get proper medical attention before a catastrophic result -- surgery. Patterson, Cordero, Hill, Kearns, Zimmerman and now Pena have all followed a similar disturbing pattern.

http://bottomfeederbaseball.blogspot.com/

http://bottomfeederbaseball.blogspot.com/2008/07/injury-update-wily-mo-pena.html

On The Hill...

With losses in 5 of his last 11 starts, and no-decisions in the other 6, Jason Bergmann has struggled to a (1-6) record in 13 starts and 15 appearances this season, while the Washington Nationals are just (2-13) when the Neptune, NJ native takes the mound. Bergmann's posted a 4.03 ERA in 82.2 IP, with a 1.29 WHIP, .261 BAA, and 88 hits, 45 runs, (37 earned), 13 HR's and just 19 walks allowed with 63 K's collected, though 30 of those 63 K's came over just 4 starts in May, (easily Bergmann's best month on the mound), during which he was (1-1) in 4 starts and 27.2 IP, with 1 CG, and the only 4 runs allowed in those games coming on 4 HR's in his 5/31 start in Arizona, a 4-0 DC loss, before which Bergmann had pitched 19.2 scoreless innings in a row, leaving the right-handed sinker-baller with a 1.30 ERA after May and arguably his best sustained run of success as a DC starter. 

Bergmann faced tonight's opponent, the San Francisco Giants, earlier this year, on June 6th in DC, throwing just 3.0 innings, and giving up 10 hits, 8 runs, (5 earned) and 1 HR with 2 walks and 0 K's in a game the Giants would win 10-1. Bergmann's only other career outing against the Giants was a relief appearance in 2005 at old RFK Stadium, where he worked 2.0 scoreless innings in a 5-1 Nationals' loss, striking out 4 and allowing just 1 hit.

Tonight's start in AT&T Park will be Bergmann's first in San Francisco. On the road this year, Bergmann's (1-4) in 6 starts and 7 appearances with a 3.92 ERA. Opposing him on the mound at AT&T will be Barry Zito, the Giants' left-handed disappointment, who is just (1-8) in 10 starts at home in '08, (3-4 in 9 on the road), with a 6.66 ERA and 35 walks, 3 HR's, 37 ER's and 64 hits allowed in 50.0 innings pitched before the Bay Area crowd.

Zito matched up against DC rookie Garrett Mock during San Francisco's visit to the nation's capital in June, earning one of his 4 '08 wins for 5.0 innings of work, with 7 hits, 3 ER's, 1 HR and 4 walks allowed, and 2 batters K'd in a 6-3 Giants' win. Zito's started 4 games against the Nationals in his 9-year MLB career, all four times since joining the Giants last season, and he's (1-1) with a 3.91 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and .244 BAA, having allowed 20 hits, 10 ER, 5 HR's and 11 walks with 16 K's in 23.0 innings pitched against Washington. 

After signing a 7-year, $126 million dollar deal in late-December '06, the 30-year old Zito, who was coming off a (16-10) '06 season in Oakland, is (15-25) in 42 starts as a Giant, posting an (11-13) record with a 4.53 ERA last season, and a (4-12) '08 record so far with a 5.62 ERA, 62 K's, a 1.79 WHIP, .299 BAA, and 115 hits, 61 ER's, 9 HR's and 60 walks surrendered in 19 starts and 97.2 innings pitched...(Over Bergmann's last 19 starts, he's (5-7) for (roughly) $784,000, which...is... = to a start and a half's pay for Mr. Zito!!)

Nationals' #'s Against Barry Zito...

Ronnie Belliard - 11 for 30, .367 AVG, 1 2B, 1 HR, 6 RBI's. 

Johnny Estrada - 2 for 6, .333 AVG.

Austin Kearns - 1 for 8, .125 AVG, 1 HR, 2 RBI's. 

RYAN ZIMMERMAN!!! - 1 for 5, .200 AVG, 1 3B.

Felipe Lopez - 3 for 8, .375 AVG, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 RBI.

Paul Lo Duca - 4 for 9, .444 AVG, 1 2B, 1 RBI. 

The "If They Were Playing" List...

DY - 5 for 25, 200 AVG, 1 2B, 1 RBI.

Aaron Boone - 2 for 14, .143 AVG, 1 2B, 2 RBI's.

Lastings Milledge - 2 for 3, .667 AVG, 1 HR, 2 RBI's.

Nick Johnson - 3 for 4, .750 AVG, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI's.

Jason Bergmann Best Watch Out For...

Aaron Rowand vs Bergmann - 5 for 13, .385 AVG, 3 2B, 1 RBI. 

Baseball America: Newsstand Edition...

In the most recent edition of Baseball America's newsstand magazine, they have a list of the, "Top 25 Prospects" in baseball which is subtitled, "Midseason Snapshot", and though I was disappointed to find that there were no Washington Nationals on the list, I did quickly find DC's Class-A outfielder Michael Burgess 4th on a list of players "On The Rise", which the Baseball America writers describe as being comprised of:

"...all kinds of players who weren't in the Top 100 (prospects list) coming into the season but are strong contenders right now."

...And Michael Burgess, all of 19-years old, and one of three 1st Round Picks by the Nationals in the '07 Draft, chosen 49th overall after pitchers Ross Detwiler (9th) and Josh Smoker (31st), is also the subject of Baseball America's DC Correspondent Lacy Lusk's column in the MLB "Organization Reports" where Lacy Lusk labels Michael Burgess the "Best Player" in the Nationals' organization, writing:

"Burgess, a first-round supplemental pick last year out of a Tampa high school, hit just .245 in April but was at .265/.350/.512 overall with 15 HR's and 51 RBI's in 283 at bats...(with) power so prodigious that the 19-year-old worried about injuring fans outside the ball park during the home run derby*." 

The "Biggest Leap Forward" according Lacy Lusk: Roger Bernadina

The "Biggest Disappointment" according to Lacy Lusk: Josh Smoker

(ed. note -  " * = South Atlantic League All-Star Game Home Run Derby...won by Michael Burgess.)

--Dave at Bottomfeeder Baseball checked in yesterday with a FANPOST on this week's MLB Player of the Week...(Hint: This DC OF, "...Wants To Play!")

"Zimmerman Watch: Left Coast Edition" - Federal Baseball's 24-Hour, 22 Hou...12 Hour... Intermittent Dodgy Coverage of the BREAKING NEWS! And ACTION!!......(Once Again With EXTRA! ACTION!!)...

Washington Post sports writer Chico Harlan reports that Ryan Zimmerman will be back in the lineup tonight, in an article entitled, "Nats Hoping Zimmerman Provides Boost", in which Mr. Harlan writes that Zimmerman, according to DC Manager Manny Acta, "...'has no limitations' because of the injury," and Mr. Harlan follows that up with a comment from DC GM Jim Bowden who states:

"I don't think he's coming back 100 percent ready to go. It might take a while to get the bat going, but he's such a great player."

Did DY's move to the DL hasten Zimmerman's return from his "slight labral tear"? Mr. Chico mentions that, "All along, the team had allowed Zimmerman, 23, to gauge when he felt ready," and DY's health issues simply, "...provided the green light for Zimmerman's return."

Zimmerman's back at third? Where does Belliard go? Any predictions for tonight's starting lineup? I went with Zimmerman, Guzman, Belliard and Casto around the infield with Langerhans, Harris and Kearns left to right around the outfield...though I'm guessing PLoD's gonna get in at first instead of Casto, but I'll accept that (until 7/31) as long as Jesus Flores is behind the plate...Game time: 10:15 pm EST...live from AT&T Park, with "McCovey Cove" right outside, and the SBN's McCovey Chronicles covering the action as well, so check them out to get the Giants' fans' perspective on the series...But More Importantly - Who's Watching the Nationals?